Determinants of Renewable Energy Sector Performance: Borsa Istanbul Time Series Application

Abstract

In the 21st century, where the harms of traditional energy usage to humans and nature have become more apparent, and countries are striving to produce solutions for the global risk that has emerged, it is observed that investments in renewable energy sources have been supported to minimize these damages. It is observed that companies operating in Turkey are increasing their investments gradually to take their place in the renewable energy market and are starting to form their technological infrastructure based on alternative energy sources. Within the scope of this study, the factors affecting the market performance of 22 companies focused on renewable energy and listed in Borsa Istanbul (BIST) were examined. For this purpose, a time series analysis was conducted to determine the impact of the VIX, BIST100, CDS, interest rate, exchange rate, gold price, Brent oil price, and gas price on the Renewable Energy Sector (YES) index between 01.03.2020 and 21.02.2024. After the unit root test, a Gregory-Hansen cointegration test was conducted for the data that was determined to have structural breaks, and the presence of cointegration between the YES and the explanatory variables was identified. To determine the long-term and short-term asymmetric cointegration effects of the explanatory variables on the YES variable, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) analysis was performed. According to the analysis findings, while an asymmetric relationship was detected between the YES variable and the CDSTURKEY, KUR, BRENT, and GAS variables in the long term, an asymmetric relationship was also determined between the YES variable and the ONS and GAS variables in the short term. As a result of the Granger causality analysis conducted to determine the existence of a causality relationship between the variables, a one-way causality relationship was identified from YES to CDSTURKEY and DIBS and from VIX, XU100, and BRENT to YES. © 2025 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.