Structural Break Analysis in Beef Production of Turkey

Abstract

Although Turkey has significantly increased beef production in the last fifty years via livestock protection and domestic support policies, self-sufficiency and price stability has not been sufficiently achieved. Forecast ing is essential to analyse the structure of the beef market and evaluate the sector. This study aimed to forecast beef production of Turkey by considering structural breaks. The data of the study was time series of beef production for the period 1961-2019 and it was obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute and, Food and Agriculture Organization. Data was analysed and forecasted using ARIMA Model. The results indicated that AMNIA (1, 1, 0) is the best fitted model and beef production would regularly increase in four years period and reach 1,133,687 tons in 2023. This research concluded that despite two structural breaks of beef production in 1983 and 2009, imports and domestic support policies substantially shaped the trend of beef time series in the last decade in Turkey.